Live Cattle Futures Report for the week of 12/19/14 via Blue Reef Agri-Marketing

Futures exploded lower and initially traded right through support. What was support, should now become resistance. And once again Feeder Cattle led the drive lower, and did not give up the ship until the CME expanded limits. We are expecting this rally to be dependent on feeder cattle in the near term. We will likely hold our option positions as the market is below the 100 bar, but will start to tweak them to capture volatility. The February should find initial resistance at 100 day moving average and at the 50% retracement level. The COF was in line with pre report estimates and should not affect the market either way. One would assume the markets try to consolidate and shrink option volatility that has gone off the charts.

Live cattle traded lower on the week. Cash trades were the lowest on Wednesday and then moved slightly higher as we progressed into Friday.

The C/S spread is at 8.69. Choice 238.57 and Select 229.88

Slaughter is expected to be at 563,604 this week.

Feeder cattle broke lower from the triangle formation and accelerated the beef dive. Higher trending corn prices along with seasonal factors started probably the biggest break seen in a very long time. We saw a bit of stabilization and the market traded into support near 215 versus the January contract. It’s a bit early to call a bottom, but this could be a good place to start a decent rally. Timing wise this is pretty much in line with the massive early winter sell off of 2012.

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Live Cattle Futures Report for the week of 10/24/14 via Blue Reef Agri-Marketing

Wide daily trading ranges in Live Cattle suggest the market is getting tired and looking for new information to continue the sharp incline it’s experienced over the last 2 months. December and February worked into new highs twice last week but failed to maintain their gains. Even $5+ higher cash trade was only enough to excite the market but not give the confidence to hold. Technically the market has not changed the long term upward rotation. However, the market is in a situation of how steep, how long can we continue the short term curve. With a violation of the short term trend, breaks can be quick and potentially deep. Supplies of Fed cattle are expected to stay tight through the balance of 2014. With this market tone will still be driven by the large managed money positions.

The USDA released their October cattle on feed report Friday afternoon. Overall this again was in line with average trade estimates.

% of Last year

USDA    Trade Est

Cattle on Feed – Oct 1                     99.5%      99.7%

Placements during Sep                    101%      101.4%

Marketing’s during Sep                    99.5%      99.2%

This is intended for informational purposes only. Trading may not be suitable for all investors and may involve substantial risk of loss. You should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance.  If you would like additional market advice please contact:

Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, Inc

www.Bluereefinc.com

309-550-7213

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Live Cattle Futures Report for the week of 10/3/14 via Blue Reef Agri-Marketing

Cash traded late in the day Friday with light volume. Texas traded $162 and Kansas $160-162. Nebraska reported sales of $250-252 Hot Weight. The packers then raised the bids late in the day to $163 and were still unable to find enough sellers to fill their needs. There is much discussion in the trade about poor packer margins and their ability to maintain slaughter. Many believe that we may see the closing of another plant or at least see a long term shortening of hours. Futures posted good gains last week with December up $3.775. Interesting to note that majority of the futures buying last week came from the commercial side and not the funds as many had expected. As of this morning Live Cattle Futures are posting modest gains but are facing strong resistance as they try to work higher. The futures will closely watch the cash trade this week, as it is expected the packer will need to come to the market vs using up all their contract cattle.

10-6-14

This is intended for informational purposes only. Trading may not be suitable for all investors and may involve substantial risk of loss. You should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance.  If you would like additional market advice please contact:

Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, Inc

www.Bluereefinc.com

309-550-7213

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Live Cattle Futures Report for the week of 9/19/14 via Blue Reef Agri-Marketing

The USDA released the September Cattle on Feed Report Friday. Cattle and Calves on feed as of September 1, 2014 totaled 9.8 million head, 1 percent below last year and 5% below the 5 year average. Placements during August totaled 1.72 million head, 3 Percent below 2013. Marketings of fed cattle during August totaled 1.69 million head, 10 percent below 2013. Both Placements and Marketing were the lowest reported since the series began in 1996. Cattle on Feed and Marketings were right in line with the average trade guesses. However, August placements were about 1% higher that the trade expected. These results are based from surveys of feedlots with 1,000+ head in 16 states. As of this Monday morning this has given some pressure to Live Cattle Futures. Futures are down between 50-75 points with more pressure to the deferred months.

 

Cattle on feed sep 2014

Source: FC Stone

This is intended for informational purposes only. Trading may not be suitable for all investors and may involve substantial risk of loss. You should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance.

 

If you would like additional market advice please contact:

Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, Inc

www.Bluereefinc.com

309-550-7213

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Live Cattle Futures Report for the week of 9/4/14 Via Blue Reef Agri-Marketing

Last week Live Cattle Futures posted very strong gains. October gained $8.325 and December gaining $6.975 on the week. December through February reached into new highs. October was unable to make new highs but still made a significant rally as it attempted to keep pace with a higher cash market. Going forward the futures market will keep a close eye on cash to maintain gains. As of this Monday morning, Live Cattle futures are taking a breather with October down $1.20 and December down $0.40. No cash has traded as of this point in the week. Cattle feeders were asking 165 in Nebraska as of the end of last week, but the packer holding at $163. We are hearing reports this morning of packers expecting to slow slaughter this week as they look to maintain margins. If this becomes the case we expect cash to be steady for the week. However, it’s still early in the week and much can change.

 

This is intended for informational purposes only. Derivatives trading may not be suitable for all investors and may involve substantial risk of loss. You should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance.

 

If you would like additional market advice please contact:

Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, Inc

www.Bluereefinc.com

309-550-7213